The West’s commotion after the failure of the spring trick

Arab affairs

The West’s commotion after the failure of the spring trick

The consecutive developments in the region during the last few weeks revealed a series of facts characterizing the American and Western policies and converging in the confirmation of the results reached by the Middle Eastern labor against Western and Israeli hegemony during the last ten years and especially since the occupation of Iraq.

Firstly, the Western adoption of the Muslim Brotherhood organization and the extremist groups which emerged from the Wahhabi institution that adopts a culture of takfir and calls for terrorism, led to the rise of these powers and contributed to the exposure of their reality before the people, in addition to the exposure of the actual American and Western goals laying behind the promotion of the concept of the so-called Arab spring. Indeed, this spring was used by the dominating colonial powers as a means to renew their control over the East and thwart the possible historical horizons for the evolution of the popular movements and the climate of rebellion which firstly exploded in Tunisia and Egypt. The West is thus trying to exploit this climate as part of the techniques to transfer the infection and target Syria. The command of the Muslim Brotherhood which relies on the support of Turkey and the Gulf states and the clear protection of the Western intelligence apparatuses – one which went on for tens of years despite the parallel support offered to Mubarak’s regime in Egypt and Ben Ali’s regime in Tunisia - was quickly exposed before its populations and bases, as its leaders are calling for foreign military incursion in Syria and leading terrorist and criminal gangs which harmed the Syrians, targeted the Christians and their churches and are working - in partnership at times and engaged in competition at others - with the takfiri groups.

Secondly, in Egypt, the divisions witnessed at the level of the MB and were reflected in the presidential electoral map and the overall political course following Mubarak’s ousting, revealed the organization’s command’s commitment to the protection of the Camp David accord and Israel’s security and economic interests which were featured in it. Moreover, leaders, cadres and youth from the organization condemned the pursuit of power at whichever price and the relinquishing of the national principles, describing the conflict with the army commanders and the so-called remnants as being a conflict over the distribution of the spoils and not one over Egypt’s economic and social future, its national choices and stands and its positions towards the Palestinian cause. The same applies to Tunisia where the ranks of the Ennahda Movement witnessed divisions ever since Rached al-Ghannouchi issued his statements in the United States and met with the leaders of the Zionist lobby (AIPAC).

Thirdly, the West is managing a wide scale pillaging campaign in Libya under the cover of a civil war witnessing the activities of the American, French and British intelligence apparatuses and the presence of the Israeli Mossad in multiple forms. This has become part of the Libyan reality which seems to be heading towards long-term anarchy and regional and tribal conflicts. In Sudan, the war between North and South - which was planned by the Americans and the Israelis since the secession - has become the prevailing reality in the area and is prone to continue in light of an economic conflict taking a sectarian shape and in parallel to the expansion of the Israeli presence in the South. Israel’s widening presence in Eretria and its influence in Morocco probably renders Algeria and Mauritania the only two Arab states exiting the ceiling of Israeli security and interests, which renders them today a direct target for the plan to transfer the infection and provoke domestic turmoil that would be pushed by the West, Saudi Arabia and Qatar towards explosion.

Fourthly, the defeat of the West in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon explains the tense behavior deployed by Turkey, the Gulf States and France at the level of the attempts to prolong the Syrian crisis and obstruct Annan’s mission upon American instructions. The West has decided to contain its failure by drowning the Arab states in anarchy and turmoil to prevent the rise of the national liberation powers or at least hinder the transformations which might lead to the enhancement of the resistance option, the rejection of social hegemony and the seeking of social liberation through the elimination of the economic patterns affiliated with the West and allowing minorities to benefiting from the wealth at the expense of the majority of poor and marginalized. The Arab spring trick is falling apart and the West which is preoccupied with its major problems will grow more inapt to handle this new historical phase.

News analysis

Chapter VII

Clinton told her group she will closely monitor Syria’s dealing with Annan’s mission and that this will be translated in harsh measures amounting to sanctions under Chapter VII. Clinton added that these sanctions will not feature unilateral military intervention or unilateral sanctions and will rather be introduced through the Security Council, expecting the issuance of the veto but concluding nonetheless “we must not despair, we must try, try again and show patience.” Juppe explained Clinton’s theory, saying that Russia and China will not uphold their stand forever and will eventually be embarrassed to support Syria all the time. Borhan Ghalioun, Hamad and Saud applauded since victory is near.

Imagine the Syrian and Iranian presidents and the leader of the resistance attending a conference on Palestine in the presence of its leaders, and assuring they will not allow Israel to act as it pleases and will pursue it, but not with our hands, forces or resistance but at the Security Council. Also imagine one of them saying that they know the veto is coming but that they should not despair and should try and try again. Imagine another saying that America must eventually be embarrassed because it cannot support Israel forever. Imagine at the end of the scene the Palestinians feeling victorious. This is a masquerade but some are willing to be truthful or lie in order to be believed by the others.

Egypt: the players have changed but the core of the conflict is still the same

Despite the decision of the Egyptian presidential elections committee to exclude ten among the candidates to the first presidential elections after Hosni Mubarak’s ousting, and although this decision affected some if the most prominent figures, i.e. General Omar Suleiman, the MB candidate Khayrat al-Shater and Salafi candidate Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, the nature of the conflict over the presidency has not changed and the electoral map is still governed by the conflict between the Islamic and liberal powers and the military institution. Candidate Amr Musa is considered to be among the remnants of Mubarak’s regime since he occupied the post of foreign minister before being named by the former president as secretary general of the Arab League. Moreover, he enjoys good relations with the “moderate” states and with the West, while his candidacy enjoys American acceptance and support. Musa is trying to present himself as an independent candidate who is open to all, which was perceived as being the facilitation of an American wager to bring him to power as a middle ground solution between the MB and the army. On the other hand, the Egyptian street also considers Ahmad Shafik to be one of the remnants of Mubarak’s regime since he was the last prime minister under his term. In the meantime, former MB leader Abdul Monem Abu al-Foutouh is considered a strong candidate enjoying charisma and popularity, especially since he focused on the social issue in his electoral program, which allowed him to earn wide sympathy in the ranks of youth, liberal and Nasseri groups. Hence, Abu al-Foutouh can address the Islamists within the MB and outside of it and ensure support in favor of his candidacy from factions with various doctrines. The last on the list is MB candidate Mohammad Morsi who was named by the group as a backup plan in the event of the exclusion of its main candidate Khayrat al-Shater.

Hence, Amr Musa, Abdul Monem Abu al-Foutouh and Mohammad Morsi are the strongest candidates running in the presidential race. According to the American New York Times, it will be up to the military council to choose between them, thus hinting to the fact that the army is controlling the so-called silent majority among the voters due to the economic weight and employment ability enjoyed by the military institution, but also taking into account the families of the officers and the soldiers and the influence attributed to the Egyptian intelligence apparatus over political and popular blocs. The ongoing dispute since the victory of the Egyptian revolution between the MB, the political movements and the military council, is linked to the distribution of the prerogatives and the responsibilities in the new constitution, considering that the army commanders are demanding a decisive role at the level of the important choices.

Regardless of the results, this contradiction will be sustained. Indeed, even if Amr Musa is elected, he will need to agree with the parliamentary majority controlled by the MB, and if Abu al-Foutouh wins, he will have to face a dual challenge to agree with both the army and the MB. But now the question is: Will the United States intervene to ensure a settlement between the army and the MB over a specific candidate or does the West want to see Egypt drowning in a state of political anarchy at a time when it is suffering security chaos and a suffocating economic crisis? If this intervention takes place, the American efforts might secure a consensual candidate. In this case, the candidate will likely be Amr Musa who will be assigned by the Americans to manage the negotiations and the partnership between the two conflicting teams. There is no arguing about the fact that Egypt is open to all possibilities and that regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections, Egypt – which is being depleted from within - will need a lot of time to regain its regional role. What is noticeable is that no side or figure presented a clear program for an economic project or determined its vision for the future of the Egyptian role which was once great and has become quasi-nonexistent during the last few years.

We can thus say that regardless of the results, the economic and social crisis and the crisis affecting Egypt’s position and role will be sustained and continue to motivate popular actions and the ongoing turmoil which will continue to be witnessed in Egypt after its people experienced the outcome of the demonstrations on the squares and the formation of a pressure group whose ability to induce change was confirmed.

Arab affairs

Syria

While heading a meeting by the higher council for local administration, President Bashar al-Assad stressed the expansion of the citizens’ participation, the increase of the interest toward the rural areas and the adoption of transparency to block the way before corruption in all its forms. On Thursday the preliminary understanding regulating the work mechanism of the UN observers in Syria was signed at the Foreign Ministry headquarters. Deputy Foreign Minister Doctor Faisal al-Meqdad signed on behalf of the Syrian side.

Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem announced during his visit to Beijing that the mission to monitor the ceasefire will not require more than 250 observers and will not need independent air support. During a press conference in Beijing, Al-Muallem also stressed that the observers should be chosen from states which he described as being neutral. In the meantime, the armed terrorist groups breached the plan of United Nations envoy to Syria Kofi Annan, after they committed more crimes against the citizens and the regime’s troops, at a time when hundreds of individuals surrendered along with their weapons to the relevant authorities.

Sudan

The military confrontation between the North and South Sudanese states has been ongoing for over a week in the oil-rich Heglig area. For his part, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir threatened to wage war on South Sudan and teach it one final lesson after the South gained control over disputed oil-rich areas. On Friday, Sudan announced that its army had regained control over Heglig and was able to oust the South Sudanese army from it. Celebrations were witnessed in Khartoum in the evening with the participation of Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his defense minister. On Saturday, Juba challenged Al-Bashir’s announcement as President Salva Kiir assured that Heglig was still under South Sudanese control and defied Al-Bashir to provide footage confirming his army’s presence in the area.

Israeli file

The Israeli papers issued this week tackled Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s meeting in Washington with the American secretary of defense and the discussion of the latest developments at the level of the Iranian file and the situation in the Middle East. Last week, Israel commemorated the Holocaust which took place during World War II and claimed the lives of six million Jews. The papers also followed the repercussions of an Israeli officer’s assault against a Danish left wing activist, which provoked commotion in Israel and confused the military and political circles in it. On the other hand, Haaretz revealed that the Mitzpeh Cramim settlement near the Kochav Hashahar settlement was established in 1999 on private Palestine land owned by the people of the Dir Jarir and Kafr Malik villages.

A poll conducted by Yediot Aharonot revealed that the majority of the Europeans perceived Israel as being the biggest threat to world peace, demanding is removal from the Middle East. In regard to the visit conducted by the mufti of Egypt to Jerusalem, journalistic sources assured that the visit was coordinated with Israel and organized by Jordan. On the other hand, Yediot Aharonot indicated that a special armament committee affiliated with the American parliament announced a draft bill increasing the American aid to acquire the iron dome by 680 million dollars.

Lebanese affairs

Brooks, Panetta and the Lebanese platform

The visit conducted to Beirut by Vincent Brooks, the US Commander General of Central Land Forces, carried – in the backstage - a shocking surprise to the March 14 forces following the information circulated by some of those who met with him and who assured they heard him issuing clear statements about the delicate situation in Syria and the collapse of the American wager on the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad. They said he also called on the Lebanese to get ready to deal with this reality for the next forty years.

Firstly, the American military commander was explaining to his interlocutors the backdrop of the transformation which affected the American position towards Syria and caused it to accept the Security Council presidential statement and Kofi Annan’s mission to deal with the Syrian crisis based on the political solution and negotiations with President Bashar al-Assad as the head of the Syrian state. In the meantime, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was testifying before Congress in regard to the same issue, stressing the Syrian army’s loyalty to President Al-Assad and the inability to wager on any secession worth mentioning within the Syrian military institution whose capabilities and discipline he praised. Panetta explained to Congress the facts leading to the conclusion that President al-Assad clearly enjoyed the support of a wide majority among the Syrian people although the turmoil has been ongoing for over a year. At this level, Pentagon’s reports indicated that the theory saying that Al-Assad lost his credit inside Syria could not be adopted. In the meantime, once Panetta started to address the status of the Syrian opposition, he presented a tragic image of its dismantlement, infighting and inability to constitute a convincing alternative for President al-Assad’s regime.

Secondly, not far away from this American climate and despite the harsh tone used by the deputies of the Future Movement and the Lebanese Forces when tackling the Syrian situation, they carried out a political trick by eluding the responsibility for the sponsorship of the terrorism pits and the smuggling of arms and armed men across the border after the Syrian Arab army has come a long way in liquidating the terrorist pits and controlling the smuggling paths used as passageways by the armed gangs, the foreign journalists and American and French intelligence officers. But this step by the March 14 forces does not mean that they have recanted this option which was flaunted by Saad al-Hariri on more than one occasion and for which the Lebanese Forces, the Future Movement and the Jamaa Islamiya established comprehensive media, political and security networks that are still in place. This maneuver is merely due to the fact that they have moved to underground work in light of the rhetoric supporting Annan’s mission, knowing that the latter groups are basing their stand on the Saudi-Qatari-Turkish determination to proceed with the action and sabotage the Syrian situation starting from Lebanon.
Thirdly, what is dangerous at this level is seeing the government coexisting with this weakness and abstaining from asking the Lebanese army to carry out its constitutional duty, which imposes on its command immediate action to pursue the armed and terrorist pits established by the Syrian opposition inside Lebanon under the cover of the Future Movement, the Jamaa Islamiya, the Lebanese Forces and some extremist groups in the North. The army command should initiate such a move considering that the situation in the North is non-understandable and inacceptable, as the gang of the so-called Free Army is in full mobilization and that the entry and exit of its elements are being facilitated via the security checkpoints as per the journalistic information being circulated and the testimony of many inhabitants. Recently, the military judiciary dealt with a number of people accused of smuggling weapons into Syria and some groups that were arrested. But this is the simple part of the problem and the least dangerous aspect of the outposts established on Lebanese soil and so far being guarded and sponsored by a number of security officials.

Fourthly, if the Lebanese military command was able to grasp the meaning of the statements of its American guests and if some officials in higher positions in the Lebanese state were able to understand the meaning of the transformations affecting the course of the crisis in Syria with its international and regional dimensions, they now have the opportunity to dismantle the platforms of intervention in Syria and go in line with the turn taken by their American master, in order to prevent him from using them once again to cover up his new defeat with Lebanese smoke.

Lebanese file

The parliamentary public sessions were launched on Tuesday and lasted three days, witnessing skirmishes and disputes between the loyalist and opposition deputies. In the end nonetheless the government earned the vote of confidence from 63 members. During the sessions, the March 14 forces focused their attack on the arms of the resistance and the abstinence policy followed by the government in regard to the Syrian situation, at a time when the concerns of the Lebanese citizens remained outside the council’s halls. Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for cooperation between the loyalists and the opposition and confirmed the government’s cohesion despite the discrepancies between some of its components. He then defended the abstinence policy in regard to the Syrian situation “because no one knows what can happen if Lebanon adopts a path in favor of one team against the other.” Nonetheless, he made sure to extend his hand to the opposition, pointing to the attempts to deplete his government and calling on all the sides to benefit from the positive aspects and to move from the stage of words to that of actions.

During his visit to Australia, President Michel Suleiman warned against “the threat of the expansion of the Syrian fire to Lebanon. Therefore, the Arab states should assume their responsibilities and extinguish this fire, or at least not fuel it.”

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview on Russia Today with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange: “What we are calling for in Syria is dialogue and the acceptance and implementation of reforms because the alternative would push Syria towards civil war. This is exactly what Israel and America want and what we do not.” He added: “We have contacted sides in the Syrian opposition to encourage them to facilitate the dialogue process with the regime, but they rejected dialogue altogether. There is an opposition that is not willing to engage in dialogue or to accept the reforms. All that it wants is to topple the regime,” stressing that he personally found great willingness on President Al-Assad’s end to introduce important and drastic reforms.