Turkey in danger

For the last fifteen years, George Friedman, the founder of the private intelligence company Stratfor, has been persuading Western leaders that the BRICS will play no important rôle in the 21st century, but that an Islamic Turkey will [1]. Friedman is an ex-collaborator of Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon strategist between 1973 and 2015 [2].

The propaganda in favour of Turkish Islamism as an economic and political model was reinforced by the Turkish Islamic leaders via certain French personnalities who have allowed themselves to be corrupted (Anne Lauvergeon, Alexandre Adler, Joachim Bitterlich, Hélène Conway-Mouret, Jean-François Copé, Henri de Castries, Augustin de Romanet, Laurence Dumont, Claude Fischer, Stéphane Fouks, Bernard Guetta, Élisabeth Guigou, Hubert Haenel, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, Alain Juppé, Pierre Lellouche, Gérard Mestrallet, Thierry de Montbrial, Pierre Moscovici, Philippe Petitcolin, Alain Richard, Michel Rocard, Daniel Rondeau, Bernard Soulage, Catherine Tasca, Denis Verret, Wilfried Verstraete, to mention but a few).

And yet Turkey is today on the verge of implosion, to the point where its survival as a State is directly threatened.

The project for dismantling Turkey

In 2001, the Straussian strategists of the Department of Defence were envisaging a remodeling of the « Greater Middle East » which foresaw the division of Turkey to the benefit of an independent Kurdistan, reuniting the Kurds living in what is now Turkey with those from Iraq and Iran. This project supposed Turkey’s exit from NATO, the reconciliation of Kurdish tribes who have nothing in common – including their language – and would call for massive movements of the population. Colonel Ralph Peters spoke about this plan in an article in Parameters, (2001), before he published the map in 2005. Peters is a student of Robert Strausz-Hupé, ex-US ambassador to Ankara and theorist of the Novus orbis terranum (the « New World Order ») [3].

This insane project surfaced again, a month ago, with the Israeli-Saudi agreement being negotiated in the margins of the 5+1 talks on Iranian nuclear capacity [4]. Tel-Aviv and Riyad were counting on Turkey to overthrow the Syrian Arab Republic. Indeed, Ankara had expressed firm engagement in this plan, when NATO terminated the transfer of LandCom (Joint Command of Land Forces) in Izmir, in July 2013 [5]. Enraged by US passivity, Mr. Erdoğan then organised a false-flag attack – the chemical bombing of the Ghouta – in order to force NATO to intervene. But in vain. He tried it again, a year later, when he promised to use the International Anti-Daesh Coalition to take Damascus. Israël and Saudi Arabia, who have both suffered as a result of these unkept promises, will have no qualms about provoking civil war in Turkey.

Political change by Washington

However, there are two elements which seem to oppose the dismantling of Turkey.

– First – the Defence Secretary himself. For the first time since the departure of Andrew Marshall, the new strategist - Colonel James H. Baker- is not a Straussian. He reasons in terms of the Westphalia Peace Principles, and is steering the Pentagon towards a Cold War-type confrontation [6]. Baker’s vision corresponds to the new National Military Strategy [7]. Besides which, his point of view is shared by the new Chief of General Interforce Staff, General Joseph Dundord [8]. In other words, it looks as though the Pentagon has abandoned the « Chaos Strategy » [9], and would prefer to work with States from now on.

– Second - preoccupied by the potential migration of the Islamic Emirate (« Daesh ») from the Levant to the Caucasus, Russia has negociated – with Washington’s blessing – an agreement between
• Syria (currently under attack by Daesh),
• Saudi Arabia (currently the main financier of that particular terrorist organisation)
• and Turkey (which assumes the operational command of the organisation).

On the 29th June, the plan was presented by President Vladimir Putin to the Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Walid Mouallem, and the special advisor to President Bachar el-Assad, Bouthaina Shaaban [10]. This was followed immediately by exchanges between the different parties.
• On the 5th July, a delegation from the Syrian secret services was received by the Saudi crown prince, Mohamad ben Salman.
• Turkey received an unofficial emissary from Damascus, then sent their own emissary to Damascus. After the signature of the 5+1 agreements, it ceased supporting Daesh and arrested 29 smugglers [11].

There are two possible evolutions – either a displacement of the war in Syria towards Turkey, or the regional coordination of anti-Daesh forces.

The situation in Turkey

In any case, Turkey has changed noticeably over the last four years.

– First - its economy has crashed. Turkey’s engagement in the war against Libya deprived it of one of its main clients, and it gained nothing, because this client is now bankrupt. Turkey’s engagement in the war against Syria was less dramatic, because the Syro-Irano-Turkish common market was still in its infancy. But the cumulated effect of those two wars disrupted the country’s growth, which is now on the point of becoming negative. Furthermore, a part of the Turkish economy is currently based on the sale of products made for major European labels, which are hijacked from the legal commercial circuits, unknown to their partners. This massive form of smuggling is now affecting the economy of the EU.

– Second – in order to seize power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan protected himself against a military coup d’État by arresting the superior officers and accusing them of plotting against the State. First of all, he blamed the Gladio Network (Ergenekon in its Turkish version) [12]. Then he had all the officers arrested who, since the end of the Cold War, had been thinking about changing their alliance – these officers had contacted the Chinese Popular Army and accused them of belonging to the same Ergenekon group, which made no sense at all [13]. After these purges were finally over, the majority of Turkey’s superior officers had been arrested and imprisoned. As a direct result, the Turkish Army was weakened and less respected by other members of NATO.

– Third – the Islamist politicies imposed by the Erdoğan administration have profoundly divided the country, spawning hatred between the secular and the religious, then between the Sunni, Kurd and Alévi communities. The parallel with the Egyptian scenario, which I spoke about more than a year ago, is today a real possibilty [14]. Turkey has become a powder keg. It would only take a spark to start a real civil war that no-one would be able to stop, and which would damage the country durably.

– Fourth – the rivalry between Erdoğan’s Islamist clan, la Millî Görüş (created in the 1970’s by ex-Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan), and Fethullah Gülen’s Hizmet, destroyed the ruling party, the AKP. Both schools of thought share the same obscurantist vision of Islam, but Fethullah Gülen (who lives today in the United States) was recruted into the CIA by Graham E. Fuller, and preaches to an alliance of the faithful allied with Christian NATO and Israël, while Millî Görüş défends Muslim supremacy. Besides, we fail to understand how the partisans of ex-President Turgut Özal (also Islamists, and as such, members of the AKP, but favourable to the recognition of the Armenian genocide, to equal rights for the Kurds, and to a federation of Turkish-speaking states of Central Asia) could continue to link their destiny to that of Mr. Erdoğan.

– Fifth – by accepting the proposition by President Vladimir Putin to build the Turkish Stream pipeline, President Erdoğan has made a direct attack on the global strategy of the United State. In fact, this pipeline, if it one day becomes reality, will open a continental communication route and threaten the doctrine of « control of common spaces » by which Washington maintains its supremacy over the rest of the world [15]. It will allow Russia to avoid the Ukrainian chaos and defeat the European embargo.

NATO doesn’t want to play any more

Since M. Erdoğan’s personal links with al-Qaïda have been proven by the Turish justice system, there is no longer any doubt that he personally commands Daesh. Indeed :
– The terrorist organisation is officially commanded by Abu Bakr el-Baghdadi. But this personality has only been publicly displayed because he is a member of the Qurays tribe, and thus a descendant of the Prophet. Executive command is assumed by Abu Alaa al-Afri and Fadel al-Hayali (aka Abu Muslim al-Turkmani), two Turkmen agents of the MIT (Turkish secret services). The other members of the General Staff are from the ex-USSR.
– Exports of crude oil, which were recently re-activated in violation of Security Council Resolution 2701, are no longer handled by Palmali Shipping & Agency JSC, the company of Turko-Azeri millionaire Mubariz Gurbanoğlu, but by BMZ Ltd, the compnay belonging to Bilal Erdoğan, the President’s son.
– Important medical care for wounded Daesh jihadists is supplied by the MIT in Turkey, in a clandestine hospital situated at Şanlıurfa, and placed under the supervision of Sümeyye Erdoğan, the President’s daughter [16].

This is why, on the 22nd July, President Barack Obama phoned his Turkish opposite number, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and issued some serious threats. According to our information, the US President declared that he had made an agreement with British Prime Minister David Cameron to exclude Turkey from NATO – which implies civil war and the division of Turkey into two states – unless Turkey
– 1. fails to immediately terminate its gas agreement with Russia ;
– 2. fails to participate immediately in the International anti-Daesh Coalition.

President Erdoğan, whose formation is Islamic but not politic [17], reacted at first by trying to appease Washington while nonetheless continuing to work on his fantasies.
– 1. Turkey authorised NATO to use its bases on Turkish territory to fight Daesh, has arrested Daesh smugglers, and participated in symbolic bombings of Daesh in Syria ;
– 2. However, Mr. Erdoğan has deployed far more important methods against his own Kurdish opposition than against Daesh, by massive bombing of the PKK positions in Iraq and by arresting members of the PKK in Turkey. The PKK responded by a laconic communiqué noting that the government had just just reopened unilateral hostilities ;
– 3. For the moment, we don’t know what decisions have been taken about the Turkish Stream gas pipeline.

We are now approaching the end of the constitutional delay of 45 days, after which the head of the main Parliamentary group has to constitute a government. Since the three main opposition parties, advised by the United States Embassy, had refused to ally themselves with the AKP, Ahmet Davutoğlu was unable to do so. New general elections will have to be held. Taking into account the division of the AKP (Islamists) on the one hand, and the hatred between the MHP (conservatives) and the HPD (left wingers and Kurds), it will be difficult to establish a majority. If this happens, or if the AKP manages to hold together, Turkey will fall into civil war.