In an article which appeared in Foreign Policy, Joseph Kechchian, a renowned American political scientist working for Saudi Arabia, presented a plan for the partition of Lebanon [1]. His reasoning is based on the observation of the historical failure of the confessional system (or rather "consociationalist" in Arend Lijphart’s terminology). However, he did not come up with any maps, but simply the idea of ​​separating the Shiites from the rest of the Lebanese and establishing a federation.

Now, for several months, the negotiations led by US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea have mainly focused on two issues: the exploitation of gas fields in the Mediterranean and the banking system, the two being linked. Furthermore, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson (South Carolina) introduced a bill to "To impose certain measures with respect to Hezbollah-dominated areas in Lebanon and Latin America and to impose sanctions with respect to senior foreign political figures in Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua supporting Hezbollah." (H.R. 8445).

Noting the new expression used by the United States: "banks favorable to Hezbollah", the Lebanese daily Al-Ahkbar (close to the Resistance) posited that Washington is exploring the possibility of closing down all the banks in southern Lebanon, of negotiating with the Shiite community a share of the Mediterranean hydrocarbon revenues, and to prepare the partition of the country.

This hypothesis would seem to be corroborated by the attitude of France, who seems to be acting for the same US group.

[1] Partition Is the Only Solution to Lebanon’s Woes, by Joseph A. Kéchichian, 18 September 2020. Video: The Issue of Partition, The Beirut Bayan, 29 September 2020.