“The Balkans, a gap to be filled”

While the historians’ answer is still awaited as to whether Yugoslavia died of natural causes, whether it was killed, whether it committed suicide or whether others made it “commit suicide”, the anniversary of its long disintegration and agony will be celebrated in 2005.
In the geopolitics of anniversaries, we commemorate this year the beginning of two “protectorates”: Bosnia-Herzegovina, which dates back 10 years ago and the 6 years of the protectorate of Kosovo. The Dayton Agreements put an end to confrontations in Bosnia after several years of bloody commitments that, at certain moments, became bellum omnium contra omnes. Typical of a diplomatic agreement, and with elements of an international treaty, therefore totally atypical, there was also an attempt to impose a model of a constitutional system. As a result, a complex political-bureaucratic apparatus was established. Although some positive results were obtained, especially concerning the refugees (nearly 50% were able to settle down), the state apparatus was enormous, very onerous and often ineffective. In addition, according to most political analysts, it is undeniable that Bosnia still has today three populations ethnically divided and peacekeeping is also currently ensured by the presence of a contingent of troops from the European Union.
In Kosovo, during the last few months, several proposals have been put forward in order to find a definitive solution. After several years of clinging to the formula “first a standard, then a status” that resulted in the worst status quo in a region that is living in a sort of “media obscurity”, the first indications of a renewed international interest are beginning to appear. On October 24, after discussions in the Security Council, the UN decided to officially open negotiations to define the status of the province.
Many observers agreed that the economic and human rights situation is worse today than six years ago. On January 25 this year, the International Crisis Group, to which belong, among others, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Marti Ahtasaari, General Wesley Clark, George Soros and Emma Bonino, presented a document that envisages Kosovo’s independence. Another group, the International Commission on the Balkans, chaired by Giuliano Amato, and financed by four private foundations, presented a similar proposal in April.