“No left turn”

When the Aymaran indegenous leader Tupac Katari was executed in 1781 by Spanish colonial rulers, he cried out that he would return incarnated in millions. The overwhelming victory of Evo Morales, being himself also an Aymaran aborigine, seems that Katari was right.
His electoral victory was interpreted as the confirmation that Latin America was turning right. The new president does not hide his admiration for Castro or Chávez and hopes to nationalize the oil industry and legalize coca-leaf growing. He also criticizes neo-liberalism. But it is not worthy to worry about that. It would be a mistake to think that he would become a new Hugo Chávez, even though he sets out himself to become so. Bolivia does not have the resources of Venezuela and Morales’ voters are less stable than those of the Venezuelan President. On the other hand, Brazil should play a moderating role in the country. Bolivia depends on US aid and the uprisings frightened off the foreign investors that the country needs. In a short term, Bolivia will have no possibilities to exploit its gas. The indigenous population, which wants quick results, might also have Morales on the rack.
In fact, Bolivia’s future will depend on the US. If Washington has an exaggerated reaction to the legalization of growing coca (a symbolic measure that will not change anything), Bolivians will rise up, and as a reaction, will push Morales to the left. Opening the US borders to Bolivian products will be a much smarter policy.