"Bluff and bravado?"

The threat of French President with regard to the use of the nuclear weapon against delinquent states supporting terrorism, has certainly been welcomed by the tough guys in Paris and Texas but it can not be seriously analyzed. The Jihadists, capable of breaking the glass of the Louvre Pyramid or blowing the Eiffel Tower and the Triumphal Arch to humiliate the French power, seem to have come out of a poor Muslim area of Paris or Marseilles. They could also come from Al Qaeda’s training camps in Iraq, the north of Pakistan or the Taliban zones of Afghanistan. Then, where would Chirac drop the bomb? In Iraq? Not likely. In Pakistan or in Afghanistan? Less likely. Syria or Iran would be the choices then.
France has established interests in these two countries. We could assume that France could order the attack against Syria with nuclear armament but due to the size of the country, Syria could be disappeared off the face of the Earth. The world could live with this scenario, no matter how unlikely it might seem. But, Iran? The oil price would quickly be more than 100 or 200 dollars a barrel, financed-by-Iran terrorist groups would be sent all over Europe and North America to start an unlimited revenge there.
In his speech, Chirac does not mention the most important thing. The necessity to justify before the public opinion the 3.5 billion dollars needed to maintain the nuclear devices, that is, the 10% of the budget of the army devoted to the 350 nuclear warheads. The new doctrine should deter the states that practice terrorism but since September 11 those states have broken their visible links and urge terrorist groups to act on their own. This brings about the emergence of a common axis between transnational terrorism and international crime. The traffic in opium in Afghanistan is aimed at making considerable profits which are shared among the Talibans, Al Qaeda’s leaders and the Pakistani secret services.
Chirac’s dramatic effect goes along with Iran’s extremists. It’s an argument dreamed by the obtuse religious ones who control the way of thinking of new and agitator President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad –the excuse to go on and finish the secret nuclear programme. At the same time, Chirac has just obstructed the AIEA work which expected to see a less intransigent policy in current negotiations in Teheran.