Venezuela: progress for Chávez, decline for the opposition

The results of Venezuela’s parliamentary elections of 26 September 2010 are not yet final.

However, out of 165 seats, 162 have already been attributed.

Both camps have claimed victory.

Compared with its 2005 results, the opposition claims a spectacular breakthrough, depriving Chávez of the two-thirds majority required for the adoption of organic laws and, consequently, for the pursuit of revolutionary reforms.

Amused, the majority points out that the opposition, having boycotted the 2005 elections, could not have made anything but a "spectacular breakthrough" this time around. More seriously, the results should be compared with those of the 2000-2005 legislature in which the opposition had competed. At that time, the number of parliamentarians from each camp varied according to the alliances; the opposition had seized 73 to 82 seats, while the majority obtained 83 to 92 seats. Therefore, the 2010 polls show a clear progress for the Chavistas and a setback for the opposition.

In terms of the votes cast, the majority carries the elections with 55 to 60% of the public support.

International observers attested to the transparency of the vote counting. However, a number of litigations have been reported in the regions governed by the opposition. It has been accused of massive election fraud to the detriment of the small parties, which could involve up to more than 500 000 ballots.

After a boycott of five years, the opposition decided to return to Parliament not to take part in the democratic debate, but to prevent President Chávez from reaching the two-thirds majority that enabled him to get a series of organic laws adopted. This new configuration might slow down the pace of revolutionary changes in favour of more moderate reforms.